- MU vs Tottenham football judgment, 02:00 on 22/5
1. Is the document lucky for MU?
MU lost the official matches against 12 different opponents in the 2024/25 season, but they were probably most bored with Tottenham.
Spurs have won all three confrontations with MU in all competitions this season: twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 at home) and once at the League Cup (winning 4-3 at home).
Tottenham has only won a team up to 4 times in a season, which is Man City in 1992/93. And MU has only been defeated by a team 4 times in the same season, Everton season 1985/86.
Good start will be the key to the hope of MU victory. In all 3 matches this season, Spurs scored in the first 15 minutes. MU also did not create an active game. They have never led the goal to Tottenham any minutes in 3 matches this season.
Of the total 295 minutes 41 seconds (including extra time), Spurs have led in 226 minutes 42 seconds – equivalent to 90.2% of the match time. MU only won 6/58 matches this season, including 4 matches at Old Trafford and 2 matches against the top teams such as Southampton or Ipswich.
However, although Spurs have the lead in this final, it does not mean that everything ended with MU. Only 4 teams dropped more than Tottenham (26 points) after leading in the Premier League this season. Since the beginning of the 2023/24 season, when the Ange Postecoglou coach took over, only Brentford (52 points) lost more points from the lead.
MU has never experienced a series of 7 consecutive games without winning against Tottenham, nor have they lost 4 times in a row. A victory in Bilbao will be the ideal way to end this bad result series, even if it has to do it in a difficult way.
2. Whoever wins will make history
Both MU and Tottenham have the forgotten Premier League season.
According to a 3 -point system for a victory, 2024/25 will definitely be the season with the lowest total score of MU since at least 1973/74 season. Without winning Aston Villa in the final round, the Red Devils will have the worst achievement since the 1930/31 season (29 points).
Tottenham only won 38 points after 37 matches in the Premier League, and if not win Brighton in the final round, this would be the second bad season in their history (after the 1914/15 season with 36 points). Spurs lost 25 matches in all competitions – with the most failed record in a season (1991/92).
Before the final round of the Premier League, MU and Spurs ranked 16 and 17 respectively – the lowest possible ranking so as not to be relegated. If it was not for three new teams to rank, one of these two big men would have had to go to Championship.
But now, a chance to redeem: win a European title and the Champions League ticket season 2025/26. The winning team will become the lowest ranking club in the league and still win a major European tournament.
In the past, there was no team of 177 Champions/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Europa League, Winners’ Cup or Conference League Cup ending the domestic season under the 14th place. That record is currently held by West Ham when they ranked 14th in the Premier League 2022/23 and the Conference League championship.
In this arena (including the period when it was UEFA Cup), Inter Milan held the lowest ranking record when the championship: They ranked 13th in Serie A 1993/94 Song beat Salzburg to win the Cup.
3. Where did Tottenham’s creative source come from?
Under Postecoglou, Tottenham encountered countless problems – but created opportunities not one of them. Despite being in the 17th place, they are still the team scoring (excluding penalties) in the Premier League this season (61 goals) and has the expected goal index (XG) excluding the 7th tallest penalty (55.3).
But in the final in Bilbao, Spurs faced a special problem: all three of their best attacking midfielders were absent from injury.
James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski – the two players who create the most opportunities for the team – can not play. They are first (78) and the third (50) in the number of opportunities created from the opening situation this season. Lucas Bergvall, although not a traditional “conductor”, also plays an important role in the rotation and control of the midfield. Without all three, Spurs will play for the first time without them since the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth in March and the loss of Aston Villa 0-2.
A midfield including Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur and Pape Sarr can hold the ball and support good defense, but the creative ability is missing.
Tottenham is likely to be most dangerous when counterattack, with high speed from the trio attacking. Wingers Pedro Porro – the fourth person in the whole team in the number of assists (9) – will need to rise often. The return of captain Son Heung-min is very important. Son led the team in the number of assists from open situations (11 – equal to Kulusevski) and XG Tao Tinh (9.5).
The question is whether those things are enough to help Spurs overcome MU or not.
4. Can MU be able to take the opportunity to score?
The European Cup finals are often not decided by the big difference.
In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Dortmund last season came after 4 consecutive finals with only 1-0. In the Europa League, the last 3/4 finals must be delineated by a penalty shootout. And all 3 UEFA Conference League finals since the tournament was born to now are determined with just one goal.
These are tight, balanced matches and are often determined by small moments. That is why the ability to finish effectively is extremely important, and statistics show that Tottenham has more suitable people to make the most of such moments.
The two teams had a completely opposite fate in front of the goal this season. In the Premier League, the rate of converting the shot into the goal of Spurs is 12.8% – the 6th highest in the tournament. Meanwhile, the number of MU is only 8.4% – the second lowest, only ranked on Southampton, the team is considered one of the worst clubs in the Premier League history. To easily imagine, the average of this season is 11.3%.
If excluding the ownership goals, Tottenham has scored 60 goals from the total XG of 57.7 in the Premier League – they scored more than the expected 2.3 goals, enough to rank the 7th tournament in the expected performance.
In contrast, MU only scored 40 goals (excluding ownership) from total XG up to 50.5. They scored less than expected 10.5 goals – only Crystal Palace (-13,9) is worse when standing in front of the goal.
Even when adding numbers from the Europa League – where MU scores much easier, they still have negative efficiency with XG (-7,9). Meanwhile, Tottenham still exceeded expectations (+6,1).
With those overview numbers, it is not difficult to explain why. Among the MU players with over 25 finishes in the Premier League this season, only Amad Diallo (7 goals from 4.3 XG) is the scorer more than expected. While Tottenham has 5 players who do that.
Of course, two of them – Maddison and Kulusevski – will not be able to play in this match. But lipstick, even though there is a season that does not really boom, is always a name capable of creating a different moment. The Korean star is one of the few players who are often superior to XG in his career, thanks to his ability to finish both extremely sharp legs. Brennan Johnson – the most goalscorer for the Premier League this season – is also the one who takes the opportunity to be very effective.
Meanwhile, MU is almost sure to leave Rasmus Højlund the highest kick in the attack – a striker who is in a decline. Overall, the whole team also faced many difficulties in scoring. That makes MU seem to have the same structure or profile like Tottenham to take advantage of the opportunity.
5. Bruno Fernandes – ông vua Europe League
MU has long been dependent on Fernandes since he moved from Sporting 6 years ago. That level of dependence is increasing in each season, and in this final, Fernandes is definitely a key factor if the Red Devils want to win glory.
The Europa League is almost his “territory”. Since the tournament changed its name to the Europa League in 2009 (replacing the UEFA Cup), almost no player left a clearer impression than Fernandes.
Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34 goals) and Radamel Falcao (30 goals) scored more goals than Fernandes (27) in the Europa League, but it was the Portuguese midfielder who was the leader in the number of assists (19) as well as the total number of shoes on the goal (46) in the tournament history in 2009.
Dries Mertens – who played more than Fernandes 16 matches in the Europa League – is the only player to create more opportunities than Fernandes in this tournament, both in terms of the total chance (185 compared to 158) and from live ball (129 compared to 110).
Fernandes is a player of big matches, and it is not surprising that his achievement in the knockout round-out Europa League is very impressive.
He contributed the shoe to 32 goals after 33 knockout matches – more than any other player – with 19 goals (second) and 13 assists (at most). Fernandes also led the number of opportunities created in the Europa League knockout matches (94 times).
He used to wear MU captain’s armband in the final in 2021 against Villarreal, but did not leave much imprint, did not create any opportunities for his teammates for 120 minutes. Although then scored in the penalty shootout, that match ended with defeat for the Red Devils. Therefore, this year’s final is an opportunity for Fernandes to redeem in the past.
6. The story of two goalkeepers … erratic
Andre Onana and Guglielmo Vicario are about to close their second season in the UK, and it can be said that both have spent the “ups and downs” time since moving to the Premier League.
Onana continuously made many mistakes in MU shirt, while Vicario faced many difficulties in fixed situations last season. However, both are good goalkeepers, and are likely to become heroes or criminals in the final in Bilbao.
Among the players playing in the Premier League teams in the 2024/25 season, only Bart Verbruggen of Brighton (6 times) made many direct mistakes that lead to a goal than Onana (5 times). Part of the reason is that Onana’s ability to prevent is quite erratic – sometimes extremely excellent, sometimes bad – but he is also not supported by the upper defense that is not good enough to receive adventure passes he often makes. Onana is very confident with its ability to pass the ball, and that sometimes leads to passes that surprise or not react.
Meanwhile, Vicario made less mistakes – he had only 1 direct error that led to the goal in two seasons for Spurs, 4 times less than Onana this season alone, but he himself has not created a absolute feeling of peace. Especially last season, people often see the scene where Vicario is under pressure in corner situations, conceding and then turning to complain to the referee about imagined fouls that never be recognized. In addition, Vicario also does not always show certainty in the ability to pass the ball.
Even so, he often has the saving phases, refusing opportunities to score seemingly sure. Spurs really remembered the 28 -year -old goalkeeper in the period when he was absent from injury. This season, Vicario is among the leading Premier League goalkeepers in the number of goals “saved” by the shocking phase – with more than 4 goals that can be blocked compared to expectations.
Both goalkeepers can become the decisive factor of their success or failure in the final.
7. Is the “new” defense of Spurs solid enough?
Tottenham’s defensive route is not necessarily “new” in terms of personnel – the quartet and their official goalkeeper has remained in the entire dynasty of Postecoglou. But “new” here is because they are now, at least in the Europa League arena, playing as a defensive system … really sure.
In the Premier League, Spurs played as if they had given up for weeks. However, when Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky Van de Ven and Destiny Udogie started in the defense in front of Vicario in the knockout round-out Europa League, Tottenham suddenly became very stable in the back.
No more the figure of the total football, high pressing, rushing to attack capital associated with the name “Ange-Ball” that Postecoglou brings. Instead, it is a more cautious gameplay, more about defense and more control of the game.
Spurs only conceded 2 goals in 4 matches in the quarterfinals and semi -finals, and the defensive statistics in those matches are really impressive – 3/4 matches they have the lowest XG parameters in the season are in the matches in the Europa League. In the two matches against BODØ/Glimt, they only let the opponent create 0.26 xg and 0.43 xg respectively. In the first leg at home against Frankfurt, the visitors only create 0.36 xg.
With the number one defender frame, the same structure system helps reduce the pressure on the defense, Tottenham is now an extremely difficult team to penetrate – far different from the fragile image that fans have used to see under the Premier League postecogou.
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